【CSIS】谁反对贸易战？

From plus评论员学术plus 2019-03-28

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2018年7月9日，美国战略与国际研究中心发表文章《谁反对？》，分析了美国国内反贸易战的各种势力情况。现中英双语全文编译仅供参考。需要说明的是，CSIS一直是坚定的主战派，并不断为特朗普出谋划策。其用意请您自行把握。

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观点不代表本机构立场

《谁反对？》

作者：William Reinsch

编译：学术plus

原载：https://www.csis.org

As the United States moves toward round 2 of the trade war, round 1 having been completed last Friday with tariffs on $34 billion of goods on both sides, an increasingly popular question is, “Why isn’t anybody doing anything about this?” There are multiple answers to that, which this commentary discusses.

美国正在走向第二轮贸易战。第一轮已于上周五完成，双方关税达到340亿美元，一个越来越受关注的问题是，“为什么没有人对此做些什么？”

The first is never to confuse lack of success with lack of effort. Just because nothing has happened does not mean that nobody is trying. As we have all come to understand over the past year and a half, the president has very strong, very fixed views on trade. It does not appear that anybody has thus far succeeded in changing them, but it is not for lack of effort. Numerous parties from the private sector and from Congress, as well as lots of foreign leaders, have trooped in to make the case for a different trade policy. None of that has worked. Certainly there has been trimming around the edges, and arguments in favor of postponement have occasionally succeeded, if only temporarily, but there is no sign of any fundamental change in his thinking of the past 35 years.

首先，永远不要把没有成功与没有努力混为一谈。仅仅因为没有发生任何事情并不判断没有人在尝试。正如我们在过去一年半中所了解的那样，总统对贸易有非常强烈且固定的看法，似乎任何人无法改变它们，但这并不是因为缺乏努力。来自私营机构、国会、许多外国领导人以及众多政党纷纷参与提出不同的贸易政策，然而这些努力都没有奏效。当然也有一些关于推迟的争论偶尔会成功，即使只是暂时的，但是没有任何迹象表明他对过去35年的想法有任何根本性的改变。

Second, there may be more going on than we think. This is an argument that comes from Congress in the face of accusations that they have done nothing. They can’t very well deny that they have done nothing—there actually are times when reality shines through—so instead they say they are working quietly and doing unspecified things to turn the president around. Maybe they are. This is one of those arguments that can only be proved—or disproved—by people who are not going to talk, so let’s move on.

其次，发生的事可能我们想象的更多。有一种对国会的看法，指责他们什么都没做。他们无法否认自己什么都没做（事实上，有时现实会让他们看到曙光）所以他们说，他们正在默默工作，做一些不确定的事情来改变总统，也许他们是。这是那些无语的人唯一能支持（或反对）的观点，所以让我们继续看。

Third, there is a lot of whining, both public and private, that has not had much impact but may ultimately make a difference, particularly as the media continues its quest for “pain stories” of companies closed, workers laid off, or farmers bankrupted because of our trade policy. These are always anecdotal—the first round of $34 billion is not likely to have a major macroeconomic impact—but a good story can often transform public opinion, so stay tuned.

第三，公众和私营机构都有很多抱怨，这些抱怨还没有产生太大影响，但可能最终会产生影响，尤其是在媒体继续寻找因我们的贸易政策而导致企业倒闭、工人下岗或农民破产的“痛苦故事”之际。这些都是轶事（第一轮的340亿美元不太可能有重大的宏观经济影响）但好的故事往往能改变公众的看法，所以请拭目以待。

Fourth, we should not overestimate what can be done. Although the now-well-known Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution gives power over tariffs to the Congress, exercising it effectively in the face of a determined president can be difficult, as several senators have recently learned. It is not enough simply to remind people of the Constitution; Congress must actually pass something and do it with a veto-proof majority if it wants to stop the president. Thus far there is no critical mass that comes close to that.

第四，我们不应过高估计实际效果。众所周知，尽管宪法第8条赋予国会改变的权力，但在一个坚定的总统面前有效行使权力可能是困难的，正如几位参议员最近所了解到的那样。仅仅提醒人们注意宪法是不够的；如果国会想要阻止总统的话，那么国会必须通过一些法案，并以绝对多数票通过。到目前为止，还没有达到这种程度。

And, fifth, why hasn’t that happened, if everybody is as upset as they claim to be? That one has been answered before. Republicans, who control the agenda and the actual flow of legislation and amendments, are afraid of both the voters and the president. Their base is also the president’s base, and his popularity with his base is at record levels. It is no accident that those who have taken him on are either retiring or not up for reelection for some time. He is also personally vindictive and has not hesitated to lash out at those he regards as blocking his path. Few are prepared to pay that price, demonstrating, sadly, that government by intimidation is alive and well and the statesmen of Tom Brokaw’s “Greatest Generation” are long gone.

第五，如果每个人都像他们声称的那样心烦意乱，为何还没有发生什么呢?这个问题以前就有人回答过，共和党人控制着议事日程，控制着立法和修正案的实际进程，他们害怕选民和总统。他们的票仓也是总统的票仓，他在票仓州的受欢迎程度创历史新高。某些人要么退休，要么一段时间内不参加重新选举，这并非偶然。他本人会亲自出手报复，毫不犹豫地抨击那些他认为阻碍他前进的人，很少有人愿意为此付出代价。可悲的是，这表明对政府进行恐吓依然有效，而汤姆•布罗考的“最伟大的一代”政治家已在人间绝迹。

Democrats, in turn, have had difficulty stepping up because they are divided. Those who are pro-trade and who represent districts of like-minded people have been loud because it is easy for them, but that is not a large number. Others who represent areas where there are substantial Trump supporters have been cautious or silent, either because they agree with the president or simply because they are afraid to attack him on this issue when there are so many others that are easier for them.

民主党由于内部分歧，很难采取一致行动。那些支持贸易的人以及代表志同道合的人所在地区的人一直在大声疾呼，因为这对他们来说很容易，但这并不是一个很大的数字。其他代表有大量特朗普支持者的地区，要么是谨慎的，要么是沉默的，要么是因为他们同意总统的意见，要么就是因为他们害怕在这个问题上攻击他。

Sixth, what about the private sector? Those that have the most to lose in the short run, the farmers, have been loud and consistent, and they may well have staved off—so far—NAFTA withdrawal, but they have had less success on China. That may be because there is widespread agreement that the problems of Chinese behavior the administration has identified are well founded and serious. There is major disagreement over the tariff remedy, but there are very few people standing up saying we should not do something. The business community generally has the same problem—agreement with the diagnosis but not the prescription. In addition, presidential intimidation is an issue in the private sector as well, Harley-Davidson being a prime example.

第六，私营部门呢？那些在短期内损失最大的人，比如农民，已经大声且一致的行动，而且他们很可能已经成功阻止了（到目前为止）退出北美自由贸易协定。但他们在中国的成功较少，这可能是因为人们普遍认为，政府认定的中国行为问题是有根据的，也是严重的。虽然对关税补救措施存在重大分歧，但很少有人说我们不应该采取行动。商业界也认可问题的诊断，但并不认可解决方法。此外，总统对私营部门的恐吓也是一个问题，哈雷戴维森就是一个典型的例子。

Finally, while we trade wonks like to think we are writing about the most important issue on the planet, the reality is that most people are focused on other things. Trade is consistently a “low intensity” issue in polls. That may play out as well when it comes to taking on the president—there are other issues where his opponents would rather draw a line in the sand. Of course, a consumer shock like car tariffs or tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese products could change that. Again, stay tuned.

最后，虽然我们研究贸易的人都认为我们正在写关于这个星球上最重要的问题，但现实中大多数人都专注于其他事情。贸易在民意调查中始终是一个“低强度”问题。当谈到与总统的较量时，这可能也会发挥作用，也还有其他一些问题，他的对手宁愿将其搁置一边。当然像汽车关税或对另外2000亿美元的中国产品征收关税这样的消费者冲击，可能会改变这种状况。还是让我们继续关注吧。

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